F A L S E L O G I C

Monday, October 30, 2006

Nuclear Abolition


Telling a country to suspend her nuclear enrichment program is like telling a mischievous child to get her hand out of the cookie jar. She knows exactly what she's doing, and she'll do it when your back is turned if need be.

This much is understood. Iran WILL continue their nuclear enrichment program, and Iran WILL (at least in my opinion as long as US and Israel has them) pursue nukes. Quite simply, the center of the Muslim world is looking for any answer as they struggle to find a way to coexist with the western world in the 21st century. In response to Iran's intent to develop peaceful nuclear technologies, the US is seeking UN support for economic sanctions against Iran.

Not to single out Iran, North Korea has also been caught with their hand in the cookie jar and have admitted to developing nuclear weapons in defiance of a 1994 U.S.-North Korean nuclear agreement. In response to North Korea's recent nuclear tests on October 9, 2006, the UN recently passed a resolution punishing North Korea with sanctions, a resolution strongly supported by the US.

If we have been paying attention to the current Iraq war, we should be asking ourselves: What are economic sanctions good for? If we were going to go invade a country anyway, and blow up all their resources, why did we even bother with the sanctions? An estimated 500,000 children deaths under the age of 5 have been attributed to 8 years of economic sanctions during the Clinton regime. Sick individuals might point out that the economic sanctions worked by preventing Iraq from developing WMD. First of all, the sanctions were never in place to prevent the development of WMD, but rather to remove already existent WMD that never existed. Second of all, and unless you're Madeleine Albright, answer me this: At the cost of half a million lives? Is this really the way nuclear nonproliferation should work?

I have a better idea. I have a problem with even 1 nuclear weapon on this planet. Yes, I'm serious, so hear me out. Nukes are not a solution to any problem. I challenge you to give me a good example where even 1 nuclear weapon is necessary.

Until we find a way to rid the world of WMD permanently, those without nukes will want them as those with nukes continue to hold the world (or at least their non-allies) at nuclear gunpoint. This is the first concept learned in Bullying 101. If you don't understand it, think about. *jeopardy theme sounding* If you still don't understand the problem with me having nukes, and you not having them, close this website. It is imperative that we understand this critical point before we can learn how to fix it.

While US has reduced their arsenal of nuclear weapons since the cold war, they have made no concessions about holding the world's largest supply (or close to it, if not always more than Russia) of active nuclear warheads for the past 50 years. They currently have an estimated 10,000 nuclear weapons. Additionally, the number of bombs awaiting dismantlement has monotonically decreased since 1993, bringing the overly ridiculous total down from around 25,000 to the still ridiculous total of 10,000 warheads.

As of February 2004 instead of dismantling nuclear warheads, the US has shifted operations to "modifying warheads to extend their service life".

The conclusion is clear: the US is not making a serious commitment to reduce and ultimately eliminate their nuclear weapons program. Furthermore, as long as the US is enhancing nuclear capabilities, the "dark side" will only gain more motivation to develop their nuclear technologies. As long as somebody has them, the probability that nuclear weapons are used again (by any side) goes up.

I now return to my previous thought; nuclear abolition. No, not nuclear weapons abolition, but nuclear technology abolition.

What does nuclear technology provide us? More energy for less cost? The keyword here being "cost". Nuclear waste stays radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years. Currently scientists across the globe are warning of an impending danger if we continue to pollute our skies. Let's not make another mistake by burying radioactive waste in the ground for those 50 years later to clean up.

Even if you claim nuclear waste can be stored safely for hundreds of thousands of years until the radioactivity wears off, is a little compromise not worth the lives of thousands, or I should say millions, as the United States and other nuclear forces continue to impose economic sanctions and drop bombs on the premise of eradicating nuclear weapons?

According to wikipedia, nuclear power provides 20% of the total energy in the US and 15.7% of the total energy in the world. If we pool together our 21st century expertise, shouldn't we be able to find a replacement for this 15.7% contribution? Even better, why not just cut our usage down 15.7% with little compromise. The best part is most 3rd world countries won't even need to do anything because they currently lack nuclear power anyway. Of course Japan and France might have more trouble finding a way to replace nuclear energy, which contributes up to 80% of their total usage, but I see this as a challenge rather than an excuse.

Why not abolish nuclear power? It's just a thought. I'm not 100% sure it's the right thought, but to me it seems little to sacrifice to settle one of the largest problems in the world: Terrorists with WMD.

What is your alternative?

4 Comments:

At 2:37 PM , Blogger Ed Mertex said...

Wow, an intelligent response. I wasn't expecting so much from my nascent blog. Thanks!

"The reason weapons exist in any form is to prevent any kind of bullying"

This is tricky, and we can look to evolution for evidence, but I contend that weapons are more for dominating than for preventing domination. Regardless, using weapons for any purpose is a scary thing. It's inhumane. It's terrorism in it's purest form.

Sure, we can discuss deterrence theory, but at the end of the day, we still have a situation on our hands. One where, as you pointed out, we must trust our leaders to do the right thing. However, when we have future nobel peace recipients signing bills to support to the contras, and more recently an entire regime built on oil money, I don't see how I can trust anybody to do the right thing.

"that there can be a winner of a nuclear war has been rejected."

I've met people who would disagree with you ("We won the cold war, damnit!"), but what is your point here? I've acknowledged a nonproliferation treaty. I just don't see how it's working. Pakistan, India, Isreal, and now NK and Iran lurking. That probably of a wacky leader is just getting higher and higher.

I admit my outlook is rather grim, but it's summed up with my statement:
"As long as somebody has them, the probability that nuclear weapons are used again (by any side) goes up."

First, I will point out that the only side to use them is the side who still has the most. Maybe it's best because only through guilt can we realize that they should never be used again. You're not arguing that the US actually supports widespread nuclear disarmament, are you? What is your evidence? Is the 10,000 nukes just a preventative measure? Just in case we find aliens and need to blow up the entire solar system? How do you defend the choice for the US to spend taxpayer dollars to enhance our nuclear arsenal to extend warhead service life?

Second, and this is more important, if there is a probability, no matter how minute, as we cycle through more and more world leaders, isn't it simply a matter of time? *kaboom* I guess you're hoping the probability of fubared leaders is sufficiently low? Well, sure, I "hope" it's low too, but hoping won't help here. I think we can make it even lower by trying to rid the world of all nuclear weapons. How can you disagree with this? Actually, I think we agree here, but I'm just stressing the point that the best solution is nuclear weapons abolishment.

The question is how to achieve this. I've suggested nuclear abolition. Maybe I wasn't specific enough, but the idea is as follows. If we abandon all nuclear technologies, and come to a global agreement, it will take too long for any contry to secretly go from having no nuclear hardware to nuclear weapons. Of course there are problems here.

1) Nano-technology or other unforeseen technologies will allow generation of nuclear weapons with little overhead.

2) Now we are dropping bombs on countries to suspend their uranium mining edeavors.

3) If nukes are successfully developed in secrecy, all hell may break loose. (same result as #1)

I believe risk #3 throws the biggest wrench into my plan. The reality is that we have developed technology to a point of no return. We can now destroy ourselves. Congratulations.

Now, we need to do something better than just wrap some academic theory around it, pass a nonproliferation treaty, and hope for the best. Clearly that isn't working if the rising entropy in the world today is any indication. What is the real solution? Maybe a real democracy? Power to the people?

"To stop this draw to stimuli, the nation-state model would have to be abolished and a complete worldwide mindset shift would have to occur"

Funny you should mention... that was my next article. Abolition of the Nation state. As you point out it's our only hope. We need to cope with the fact that we can now destroy ourselves. We need to think of a better way to govern ourselves. Isn't something far superior and more peaceful imaginable through the internet? No nukes and no nations (at least in their current form). I don't even think we'd need to worry about the shift in popular beliefs. Beliefs would redefine themselves instantly - if oppresive regimes would only let them.

Now, get back to your indoctrinating lecture, "sally", if that is your real name. ;)

 
At 7:43 PM , Blogger Hans Bennett said...

Nuclear abolition all the way....

And as you said, Mr Mertex, the US has absolutely no authority to tell anyone to stop theiur nuke program. The US has so much more than everyone else and perhaps most important, we are the ONLY COUNTRY to actually use them (twice at that).

good essay, Ed

 
At 10:51 AM , Blogger Ed Mertex said...

One more comment. You mentioned Kim Jung Il. Starving people, death squads, and humans rights violatoins? That sounds a lot like latin/south america if you ask me. Can you please help me, I'm having a mental block. Who supported horrid regimes in columbia and nicaragua (to name a few)? I believe there are more nations with irrational leaders than perhaps you're willing to believe.

 
At 4:16 PM , Blogger Ed Mertex said...

North Korea is no place for social rights, I'll grant you that. I never claimed it was. Iran, Iraq, and many other countries fall into the same category, especially if you are of the famale variety.

I believe, however, that the topic here is nuclear technology abolition. Clearly, there is a difference of power between countries who have nukes, and those who neither have nukes and are also not allies of nations that do. It is this difference in power that is creating a power struggle in the middle east. Just read the following article about 6 new nations vieing for nuclear power.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2436948,00.html

My solution to the problem: aboloish nuclear technology.

I'm very eager to hear your solution, and hopefully it doesn't require incubating the problem a little longer until it gets out of control.

 

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